On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February dropped for the third straight month. It notched the largest monthly decline since August 2021 as expectations for inflation —in part fueled by Trump tariff fears — climbed.
“There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019,” the Conference Board said. “Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.
The report unsettled an already increasingly unsettled market.
Tariffs could end up triggering a “stagflationary shock” to the economy, Apollo Global chief economist Torsten Sløk told me on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
Tuesday marked the biggest four-day decline for the S&P 500 since early December, per data from Deutsche Bank’s Reid. The Magnificent Seven has entered a “technical correction,” Reid pointed out, with the group of stocks off more than 10% from its peak in December.
“The simple fact remains that investors don’t know 1) The extent nor 2) Size of looming tariffs on major trading partners including Canada, Mexico, the EU and all other trade partners via reciprocal tariffs,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye wrote. “Additionally, the spontaneous nature of the tariff threats has led investors to worry that even currently well-regarded trade partners aren’t safe from potential threats. Bottom line, whether there are tariffs or not, investors need clear and consistent trade policy and this is the opposite.”
