When it comes to trading, many believe success lies in picking more winners than losers. But in my experience, the real edge comes from understanding one key concept: expectancy. Expectancy is the average amount I can expect to win or lose per trade, factoring in both the probability and size of wins and losses. Even with a win rate below 50%, I can be consistently profitable if my winning trades outweigh my losing ones. That’s why I focus less on being right and more on managing risk and maintaining discipline. In the long run, it’s the math of expectancy—not predictions—that drives success.
